February 28, 2007
GCRIO Program Overview
Our extensive collection of documents.
Archives of the
Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999
FROM VOLUME 1, NUMBER 5, NOVEMBER 1988
An Analysis of the Carbon Dioxide Provisions of S. 2666
--The Global Environmental Protection Act of 1988, 23 pp., Sep.
1988. Oceans & Environ. Prog., Off. Technol. Assess. (600 Penn. Ave SE,
Washington DC 20003; 202-228-6853).
A preliminary analysis of reductions of CO2 emissions from utilities,
automobiles and appliances required by the bill, which was introduced by Senator
R. Stafford (see NEWS, this Global Climate Change Digest issue--Nov.
1988). The several scenarios considered all assume the bill's efficiency
standards will be achieved by the specified dates. Most are achievable with
current technology; advanced technology or increased acceptance of nuclear power
will be necessary to meet the bill's requirements for 2010 and after. Overall,
with the bill's provisions, CO2 emissions by 2030 could range from 20% below
1985 levels to no change. Electric utility emissions alone by 2045 could range
from slightly less than 1985 levels to 1.5 times as much, provided technologies
are rapidly adopted, or half as much with decreased electricity demand.
Emissions from automobiles could be 50-70% lower than 1985 by 2030; those from
appliances could be held constant.
Turning Down the Heat--Solutions to Global Warming: An Analysis
of Energy Efficiency, Renewable Resources, and other Options versus New Nuclear
Power Development, N. Rader, A. Antypas et al., 101 pp., Sep. 1988. Pub. by
Public Citizen and Safe Energy Commun. Council. Order from Pub. Cit. Critical
Mass Energy Proj., 215 Penn. Ave. SE, Washington DC 20003 (202-546-4996); $20 (8
p. exec. summ., $1.50).
Evaluates the role of nuclear power as a partial solution to the greenhouse
gas problem and finds that it satisfies none of the necessary criteria: rapid
implementation, acceptable economic and environmental costs for the U.S., and
treatment of the sources of emissions. Discusses in detail problems with nuclear
power as a solution--hidden costs, nuclear waste, safety problems, decommission,
public opinion, and problems with the proposed "new generation" of
The report finds that at least two-thirds of the carbon dioxide produced by
the combustion of coal and oil for generating electricity and use in homes,
businesses and industry could be displaced by the year 2000 through modest
investments in energy efficiency, renewable energy, and selected natural gas
technologies. It discusses institutional and technical factors affecting
development of natural gas and renewable options, and summarizes the status of
eight renewable technologies currently used.
Offsetting New CO2 Emissions, D.J. Dudek, 19 pp., Sep. 1988.
Environ. Defense Fund, 257 Park Ave. S, New York NY 10010 (212-505-2100).
Proposes a policy to slow the growth of CO2 emissions whereby new CO2
sources would be required to offset emissions through afforestation. Used as an
example are all fossil-fueled generating stations proposed to be constructed
during 1987-96, although the concept could apply to other types of sources. Of
several offset options considered, forest planting under the existing
Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is the most cost effective. This approach
would reinforce the CRP goals of reducing erosion and surplus agricultural
production, boost lagging forest signups for the CRP, and help satisfy timber,
wildlife habitat and recreational demands. Acreage to offset CO2 would be about
one-quarter the land authorized for the CRP, and could be secured for $1.01-1.94
billion depending on the degree of cost sharing. The plants used in the example
would account for about 3% of total U.S. CO2 emissions.
Future Concentrations of Stratospheric Chlorine and Bromine (EPA
400/1-88/005), J.S. Hoffman (Div. Global Change, Off. Air & Rad., U.S.
Environ. Prot. Agency), M.J. Gibbs (ICF Inc., Universal City, Calif.), 150 pp.,
Aug. 1988. Request from U.S. EPA, Washington DC 20460.
Presents a method for evaluating risks of ozone depletion that avoids the
uncertainties currently involved in linking atmospheric Cl and Br levels to
projected ozone depletion, by relating rates of emissions to stratospheric
levels of Cl and Br. The report evaluates potential changes to those levels
under several emissions scenarios including the Montreal Protocol, the
reductions in ozone depleters necessary to stabilize levels of Cl and Br, and Cl
levels associated with various scenarios of timing, coverage and stringency of
the Montreal Protocol.
Under the protocol, Cl and Br levels will rise substantially; an immediate
100% reduction in the use of fully halogenated compounds and a freeze in methyl
chloroform would be needed to stabilize Cl and Br over the next 100 years.
Future Cl growth has several sources, but projected levels are influenced by the
extent to which partially halogenated compound use increases as they are
substituted for chemicals foregone under the protocol. The timing of any
phaseout affects the magnitude of Cl compound increases and the time for them to
return to 1985 levels.
Present State of Knowledge of the Upper Atmosphere 1988: An
Assessment Report (NASA Ref. Pub. 1208), R.T. Watson and Ozone Trends Panel,
M.J. Prather and Ad Hoc Theory Panel, M.J. Kurylo and NASA Panel for Data
Evaluation, 200 pp., Aug. 1988. Earth Sci. & Applic. Div., NASA Off. Space
Sci. & Applic., Washington DC 20546. Avail. from Nat. Tech. Info. Svc.,
Springfield VA 22161 (703-487-4600).
The sixth of a series of reports mandated by the Clean Air Act Amendments of
1977. Consists of (a) the executive and chapter summaries of the international
Ozone Trends Panel report (see Global Climate Change Digest, NEWS, July
1988); (b) model predictions of future ozone changes by a panel of
theoreticians; (c) a panel review of the status of kinetics and photochemistry
data. Among the key findings:
(a) Undisputed observational evidence shows concentrations of gases that
influence stratospheric ozone levels continue to rise from human activities.
Calculations using two-dimensional photochemical models predict these increases
would have caused a small decrease in global ozone from 1969 to 1986 (up to 2%
in the mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere). Model results are generally consistent
with observations; observed changes may be due wholly or in part to the
increased abundance of trace gases, primarily CFCs. Evidence strongly indicates
recent springtime ozone depletions over the Antarctic are related to
anthropogenic chlorine species.
(b) Models show that growth in trace gases other than chlorinated species
(CH4 and CO2) will have a major impact on stratospheric ozone. Current
predictions of future changes are similar to those of the previous assessment (Atmospheric
Ozone 1985; see Global Climate Change Digest, REPORTS, Oct. 1988).
Current models do not adequately simulate the Antarctic ozone hole, and cannot
predict whether its effects will appear elsewhere.
(c) Most changes to the recommended kinetic and photochemical data base
since the previous evaluation have been minor; the most significant advances
relate to reactions involving stratospheric aerosols.
NASA Upper Atmosphere Research Program: Research Summaries 1986-1987,
363 pp., Jan. 1988.
Supplements the preceding report to Congress; consists mainly of 1-2 page
progress reports of individual projects funded by the program. Broad areas of
research are field measurements, laboratory and theoretical studies, data
analysis, interdisciplinary methane research, assessments.
Greenhouse Effect, Sea Level Rise and Coastal Wetlands
(EPA/230/05-86/013), J.G. Titus, ed., 152 pp., July 1988. Request from Off.
Policy, Planning & Eval. (PM-221), U.S. Environ. Prot. Agency, Washington DC
Drafted between 1984 and 1986 and under review until publication last July,
this report finds that extensive areas of coastal wetlands are subject to loss
by sea level rise since they are usually within a few feet of sea level. New
wetlands cannot form where land adjacent to existing wetlands is developed and
protected from the rising sea. Case studies of potential impacts based on field
data are presented for wetlands near Charleston, South Carolina, and Long Beach
Island, New Jersey. A first attempt to estimate nationwide impact based on
topographic maps follows, with discussion of measures wetland protection
officials can take now. The report neither examines the impact of sea level rise
on specific federal programs, nor recommends specific policy changes.
Some of the specific conclusions: sea level rise could become a major cause
of coastal zone wetland loss; a five-foot rise would cause 80% loss in the case
studies. Louisiana would be most vulnerable, and loss would depend on whether
developed areas immediately inland are protected by levees and bulkheads.
Federal and state agencies should begin now to determine how to mitigate wetland
loss, because such loss does not decrease the need to implement existing wetland
This report is undergoing further revision. The EPA Sea Level Rise Project
(address above) has request forms for some two dozen recent and future reports,
and future drafts that are available to those willing to review them. They cover
assessments of impacts on economic development, beach erosion control
strategies, salinity of estuaries and aquifers, and coastal drainage and sewage
systems. Many focus on specific regions of the country.
Climate Crisis--The Societal Impacts Associated with the 1982-83
Worldwide Climate Anomalies (E.87.III.D.9), M. Glantz, R. Katz, M.
Krenz, eds., 105 pp., 1987. UN Environ. Prog. and Environ. & Soc. Impacts
Grp., Nat. Ctr. Atmos. Res. (Boulder, Col.). Available from UN Pubs., Rm.
DC2-0853, New York NY 10017, or Palais des Nations, 1211 Geneva 10, Switz.; $20.
Consists of 13 papers from a November 1985 workshop in Lugano, Switzerland
on the possible relationships between climatic disturbances of 1982-83 and the
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event of that year. The case studies
from various parts of the world portray the regional climatic anomalies and
identify some of the societal and environmental impacts.
Guide to Publishers
Index of Abbreviations