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Global Climate Change DigestArchives of the
Global Climate Change Digest

A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 5, NUMBER 12, DECEMBER 1992

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS: TECHNIQUES


Item #d92dec75

"Global Warming and Environmental Change in Sub-Saharan Africa," M.H. Glantz (ESIG, NCAR, POB 3000, Boulder CO 80307), Global Environ. Change, 2(3), 183-204, Sep. 1992. Recently proposed climate change impact scenarios for this region should be considered speculative, and no single scenario should be used for determining irreversible policy responses.


Item #d92dec76

"Adapting Stochastic Weather Generation Algorithms for Climate Change Studies," D.S. Wilks (Dept. Soil, Crop, Atmos. Sci., Cornell Univ., Ithaca NY 14853), Clim. Change, 22(1), 67-84, Sep. 1992.

Presents a method of adapting stochastic weather generation models to generate synthetic daily time series consistent with assumed future climates, for investigating agricultural and other impacts. Simulation of time series exhibiting changes in variability is possible.


Item #d92dec77

"Towards a General Method for Analyzing Regional Impacts of Global Change," T. Malone (Dept. Marine Sci., N. Carolina State Univ., Raleigh NC 27695), G. Yohe, Global Environ. Change, 2(2), 101-110, June 1992.

The effects of global change are likely to be greatest at subnational levels, but the integration of social and environmental science on these levels is a challenge. Describes a pioneering government-sponsored study of climate change in the central U.S., which has incorporated diverse inputs from a range of disciplines and is potentially applicable in developing countries.


Item #d92dec78

"Modeling Ecological and Agricultural Impacts of Global Change on a Global Scale," R. Leemans (Nat. Inst. Pub. Health & Environ. Protect.--RIVM, Dept. Global Change, POB 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, Neth.), J. Sci. Indust. Res., 51(8-9), 709-724, Aug.-Sep. 1992.

Discusses methods for developing consistent climate-change scenarios and linking them to different impact models. Examples are drawn from different impact studies on large-scale vegetation patterns, forest dynamics and agricultural systems.


Item #d92dec79

"A Comparison of GCM-Simulated and Observed Mean January and July Precipitation," D.R. Legates (Dept. Geog., Univ. Oklahoma, Norman OK 73019), C.J. Willmott, Global Planet. Change, 5(4), 345-363, 1992.

The comparison shows that regional differences are commonly quite large, which suggests cautious use of current-generation GCM output for local- and regional-scale climate change studies.


Item #d92dec80

"A 2XCO2 Climate Change Scenario over Europe Generated Using a Limited Area Model Nested in a General Circulation Model. 2. Climate Change Scenario," F. Giorgi (NCAR, POB 3000, Boulder CO 80307), M.R. Marinucci, G. Visconti, J. Geophys. Res., 97(D9), 10,011-10,028, June 20, 1992. Results emphasize the inadequacy of simply interpolating coarse resolution GCM output to obtain estimates of local changes in surface climatic variables for impact assessments.


Item #d92dec81

"Assessing Impacts of a Climatologically Unique Year (1990) in the Midwest," S.A. Changnon (Illinois State Water Survey, Midwest. Clim. Ctr., Champaign IL 61820), K.E. Kunkel, Phys. Geog., 13(2), 180-190, Apr.-June 1992.

Includes discussion of how assessment of the effects of a changed climate will require that global climate models describe shifts in average dates of first and last freezes, the frequency of heavy rain events and intensity of severe storms.


Item #d92dec82

"An Evaluation of Global Warming and Its Impact," U.R. Rao (Indian Space Res. Organization, Bangalore 560094, India), S.C. Chakravarty, Current Sci., 62(6), 469-478, Mar. 25, 1992.

An energy balance model shows that the growth of greenhouse gases could raise temperatures about 4 K by the year 2050 compared to the preindustrial era. Finds that the possible climatic impacts of warming on a few biophysical parameters are alarming. Prompt action to control emission of greenhouse gases is needed.


Item #d92dec83

"Developing Scenarios of Temperature Thresholds," P.J. Robinson (Dept. Geog., Univ. North Carolina, Chapel Hill NC 27599), Phys. Geog., 13(1), 14-30, Jan.-Mar. 1992.

Presents a method for developing regional scenarios of the number of days per month above a selected temperature, using regressions on observed daily maximum temperatures, and extrapolation to the results of GCMs. Demonstrates the method by developing a set of scenarios for the U.S. for a 90° F threshold.

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