February 28, 2007
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FROM VOLUME 5, NUMBER 7, JULY 1992
SEA LEVEL SCIENCE, TRENDS
Two items from Nature, 357(6373), May 7, 1992:
Correspondence concerning the reliability of sea level predictions of
climate change models, p. 25.
"Warming of the Water Column in the Southwest Pacific Ocean," N.L.
Bindoff (CSIRO, Div. Oceanog., GPO Box 1538 Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia),
J.A. Church, 59-62.
Measurements made 22 years apart show that there has been a depth-averaged
warming of up to 0.04░ C throughout most of the water column below the
mixed layer. The corresponding sea level rise between a 300 m depth and the
ocean floor caused by expansion is 2-3 cm, consistent with the observed rate of
global sea level rise. More measurements are needed before conclusions can be
drawn about the global significance of these results.
"Periodicities in Sea Level Changes at Stockholm," R.P. Kane
(Inst. Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, IPNE, CP 515, 12210 Sao JosÚ dos
Campos, SP, Brazil), D. Gobbi, Clim. Change, 21(1), 77-85, May
The annual mean sea level time series for 1825-1984 has a large long-term
negative trend. The detrended series shows significant periodicities ranging
from 2.05 to 43 years; some periodicities resemble those seen in the Southern
"A Comparison of Late Holocene and 20th Century Sea Level Trends
from the UK and North Sea Region," I. Shennan (Dept. Geog., Univ. Durham,
Durham DH1 3HP, UK), P.L. Woodworth, Geophys. J. Intl., 109(1),
96-105, Apr. 1992.
Trends determined from tide gauges and geologic data are generally well
correlated. There is no evidence in the region for an acceleration of sea level
trends in recent decades.
"3000 Years of Sea Level Change," W.F. Tanner (Geol. Dept.,
Florida State Univ., Tallahassee FL 32306), Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,
73(3), 297-303, Mar. 1992.
Changes in the statistical distribution of beach-sand grain size can be used
to deduce sea level fluctuations of 1-3 m over the past few thousand years.
Predictions about what sea level will do in the near future should be based on
this history, not on the arbitrary, fictitious and unrealistic absolute sea
level that appears to underlie various popular forecasts.
"Retention of Greenland Runoff by Refreezing: Implications for
Projected Future Sea Level Change," W.T. Pfeffer (INSTAAR, Univ. Colorado,
Boulder CO 80309), M.F. Feier, T.H. Illangasekare, J. Geophys. Res.,
96(C12), 22,117-22,124, Dec. 15, 1991.
Presents a model which describes the transient process of infiltration,
refreezing and runoff of meltwater. Application to Greenland in a future warming
climate shows that predictions of runoff-induced sea level rise that ignore the
refreezing process could be as much as 5 cm too high over 150 years.
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