February 28, 2007
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Published July 1988 through June 1999
FROM VOLUME 6, NUMBER 12, DECEMBER 1993
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: AGRICULTURE
Special issues: MINK Study. Clim. Change, 24(1-2),
June 1993, consists of six papers plus an introductory editorial by N.J.
Rosenberg on a project supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, to develop
methods for assessing the regional agricultural consequences of climate change.
The study focused on Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas (MINK) in the central
U.S. These papers draw primarily but not entirely on a set of DOE reports
previously listed in Global Climate Change Digest. A special issue of Agric. For. Meteor.
(59(1-2), Apr. 15, 1992) contains five papers discussing details of the
project's approaches to calculating crop productivity and responses.
"Potential Impacts of Shifts in Climate on the Crop Insurance
Industry," E.R. Fosse (c/o Illinois State Water Surv., Champaign IL 61820),
S.A. Changnon, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74(9), 1703-1708, Sep.
Insurance rates are based on historical data, and it will be difficult for
the industry to react to changing storm frequencies or intensities. Industry
adaptations may include declining coverage, reduced coverage per unit area, and
lower yield guarantees. These acts would lead to more self-insurance by crop
producers, which would involve more crop diversification and dispersion of crops
over a greater area.
"Effects of Changes in Temperature and CO2 Concentration on Simulated
Spring Wheat Yields in the Netherlands," S. Nonhebel (Dept. Theor.
Production Ecol., Agric. Univ., POB 430, 6700 AK Wageningen, Neth.), Clim.
Change, 24(4), 311-329, Aug. 1993.
A model simulation showed that a temperature rise would result in decreased
yield due to a shortened growing period. Increased CO2 would increase yield, and
the two effects in combination would result in small yield increases in wetter
years, and large yield increases in drier years.
Comment and reply on the economic effects of climate change on world
agriculture, ibid., 24(3), 273-280, July 1993.
"Probable Effects of CO2-Induced Climatic Warming on the Thermal
Environment of Ponded Shallow Water," S. Ohta (Sch. Human Sci., Waseda
Univ., 2-579-15 Mikajima, Tokorozawa, Saitama 359, Japan), Z. Uchijima et al.,
ibid., 23(1), 69-90, Jan. 1993.
A physical model of rice fields showed that water temperature under CO2
doubling rose 2· to 4·C, which would significantly shift northward the
isotherm for the dates for safe transplanting of rice seedlings.
"Probability Analysis of Climate Change Impact on Potential
Productivity of Agricultural Ecosystems," E.E. Zhukovskii, G.G. Belchenko,
T.M. Brunova, Soviet Meteor. & Hydrol., 3, 70-79 (p. 92
Russian Ed.), 1992.
Bases the analysis on the comparison among frequency curves for yield
resulting from specific meteorological conditions. The frequency curves are
evaluated by the Monte Carlo method for different climatic scenarios.
"Potential Impacts of CO2-Induced Climate Change Using the GISS, GFDL
and CCC Scenarios on Corn Yields in the Essex County Region of Ontario, Canada,"
A.A. Viau (Dépt. Sci. géodés., Univ. Laval, Ste.-Foy PQ G1K
7P4, Can.), C.M. Mitic, Clim. Bull., 26(2), 79-105, Aug. 1992.
Multivariate regression leads to estimates of a 6.3-14.4% decrease in corn
yields as a result of water stress, indicating that irrigation systems will be
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