February 28, 2007
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A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999
FROM VOLUME 7, NUMBER 3, MARCH 1994
- OF GENERAL INTEREST: GLOBAL WARMING SCIENCE
and Minimizing Uncertainty of Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic
Aerosols," J.E. Penner (Atmos. Microphys., Lawrence
Livermore Natl. Lab., POB 808, L-262, Livermore CA 94550), R.J.
Charlson et al., Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 75(3),
375-400, Mar. 1994.
Estimates the uncertainty in the clear sky influence on the
Earth's radiation balance of a variety of anthropogenic aerosol
types. Presents a vigorous research strategy for reducing
uncertainties, which could allow these effects to be incorporated
into climate models in the next several years. Because estimates
of the cloudy sky influence are little more than guesses,
it is not possible to quantify their uncertainty, and only
exploratory research is recommended in the near future.
Assessment of the Role of Natural Variability in Recent Global
Warming," R.J. Stouffer (GFDL, POB 308, Princeton NJ 08542),
S. Manabe, K. Ya. Vinnikov, Nature, 367(6464),
634-636, Feb. 17, 1994.
Evaluates the observed global warming trend of about 0.5·C
per century since the late nineteenth century, using a 1,000-year
climate simulation from a model of the coupled
ocean-atmosphere-land system. The model shows interannual and
interdecadal variations in temperature similar to those observed,
but no temperature change as large as 0.5·C per century is
sustained for more than a few decades. This suggests that the
observed trend is not a natural feature, but may have been
induced by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases and
Greenhouse Signal," J.R. Christy (Earth Syst. Sci. Lab.,
Univ. Alabama, Huntsville AL 35899), R.T. McNider, Nature, 367(6461),
325, Jan. 27, 1994.
Briefly presents satellite measurements of the global average
temperature of the lowest 7 km of the atmosphere for 1979-1993,
with the effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Mount
Pinatubo removed. The result shows an upward temperature trend of
0.09·C per decade, one-quarter of the rise projected by climate
models for greenhouse warming. Concludes that the observed rise
could be from greenhouse gases, but other, less quantifiable
effects may be involved.
Variability: Implications for Global Change," J. Lean (Ctr.
Space Res., Naval Res. Lab., Washington DC 20375), D. Rind, Eos, 75(1),
1, 5-7, Jan. 4, 1994.
Reviews recently renewed scientific attention to solar
variability as a natural factor, in addition to volcanic
emissions, against which any anthropogenic influence is cast.
Solar variability has probably been responsible for climate
changes over the past several centuries, and may prove
significant for future climate changes. Discusses needed
Methane," J. Rudolf (Inst. Atmos. Chem., Forschungszentrum
Jülich, 52425 Jülich, Ger.), Nature, 368(6466),
19-20, Mar. 3, 1994.
Presents a brief analysis of possible reasons for the abrupt
decrease in the upward trend of methane reported by Dlugokencky
et al. (GCCD, Jan. 1994.) The evidence is inconclusive for
all of the mechanisms examined (gas distribution in Russia,
biomass burning, Mt. Pinatubo effects); the near future trend of
methane should shed light on the question.
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