February 28, 2007
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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999
FROM VOLUME 8, NUMBER 6, JUNE 1995
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: FORESTS AND ECOSYSTEMS
Feedbacks of Northern Wetlands on Climate Change: An Outline of an Approach to
Predict Climate-Change Impact," S.D. Bridgham (Dept. Biol. Sci., Univ.
Notre Dame, Notre Dame IN 46556), C.A. Johnston et al.,
BioScience, 45(4), 262-273, Apr. 1995.
Climate change would be likely to have these four major consequences, all
with potentially significant positive or negative feedbacks: changes in net
primary production and allocation patterns of carbon and nutrients; carbon and
nutrient mineralization rates; distribution, species diversity and successional
status of plant communities; and emissions of CO2 and trace gases,
"How Physics and
Biology Matter in Forest Gap Models," H. Bugmann (Potsdam Inst. Clim.
Impact Res., POB 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Ger.), P. Martin, Clim. Change,
29(3), 251-257, Mar. 1995.
An editorial comment stating that it is a challenge for ecologists to
consider what level of physiological and biophysical detail is needed to
accurately model climate change impacts. Discusses important features of model
validity, and elaborates three criteria to use in evaluating the level of detail
to be included in ecological models: parsimony, complexity, and computational
Dominance Within a Montane Vegetation Community: Results of a Climate-Warming
Experiment," J. Harte (Energy & Resour. Group, Univ. Calif., Berkeley
CA 94720), R. Shaw, Science, 267(5199), 876-880, Feb. 10, 1995.
Experiments in Rocky Mountain study plots with sagebrush and cinquefoil
suggest that doubled CO2 could change the dominant vegetation of a
widespread meadow habitat.
Long-Term Faunal Changes in a California Rocky Intertidal Community," J.P.
Barry (Monterey Bay Aquarium Res. Inst., 160 Central Ave., Pacific Grove CA
93950), C.H. Baxter et al., ibid., 267(5198), 672-675, Feb. 3,
During the past 60 years, annual mean shoreline ocean temperatures increased
by 0.75° C, and southern invertebrate species became more dominant at the
expense of northern species. No trend was seen for cosmopolitan species.
Plasticity of the Phenology of Seven European Tree Species in Relation to
Climatic Warming," K. Kramer (Inst. For. & Nat. Res., IBN-DLO, POB 23,
6700 AA Wageningen, Neth.), Plant, Cell & Environ., 18(2),
93-104, Feb. 1995.
Observations of seven species, relocated over a large latitudinal range in
Europe, showed that trees possess considerable plasticity and are able to
respond phenotypically to a major change in their local climate. The lowest
temperatures around the time of leaf unfolding may represent thresholds below
which a species cannot survive. These thresholds may be a particularly sensitive
means to evaluate the effect climate warming on the geographic distribution of
"Climate of the
21st Century," L. Bengtsson (M. Planck Inst. Meteor., D-2000 Hamburg 13,
Ger.), Agric. & For. Meteor., 72(1-2), 3-29, Dec. 1994.
Estimates possible changes in vegetation due to climate change with a biome
model, and predicts a small north-eastward movement of the vegetation zones over
Europe and North America.
Implications of Projected Climate Change Scenarios in Forest Ecosystems of
Central North America," E.A. Jones (Sch. For., Michigan Technol. Univ.,
Houghton MI 49931), D.D. Reed, P.V. Desanker, ibid., 31-46.
Projects climate change scenarios for selected weather stations using a
stochastic daily weather simulation model. Even the mildest climate change
scenario indicates that significant changes could occur in the composition and
productivity of forests. Climatically induced regional decline episodes for a
number of important commercial species are possible.
Climate-Induced Extinction in the Temperate Zone," T.P. Rooney (Dept.
Biol., Indiana Univ., Indiana PA 15705), Environ. Conserv., 21(3),
257-259, Autumn 1994.
Proposes a simple model, based on the geographical distribution and
dispersal abilities of given species, to predict the effects of global warming
on their future distributions. The model does not replace single-species
studies. However, in the absence of such studies, it can be used to create a
qualitative prediction of the effect of climate change on a particular organism,
as long as that organism's distribution is determined by existing temperature
Impact on Distribution and Abundance of Wildlife Species: An Analytical Approach
Using GIS," R. Aspinall (GIS & Remote Sensing Unit, Macaulay Land Use
Res. Inst., Aberdeen AB9 2QJ, UK), K. Matthews,
Environ. Pollut., 86(2), 217-223, 1994.
Describes a procedure, using examples from Scotland, that generates
hypotheses defining ecological relationships between species distribution and
climatic factors. These relationships are then used to model the distribution of
the species directly from climate and to predict impacts of climate change. The
procedure is implemented as a generic tool for inductive spatial analysis in
the Terrestrial Biosphere to Climatic Changes: Impact on the Carbon Cycle,"
P. Friedlingstein (Dept. Oceanog., Free Univ. Brussels, CP208, Bld du Triomphe,
1050 Brussels, Belg.), J.-F. Müller, G.P. Brasseur, ibid., 83,
Developed a 5° x 5° longitude-latitude resolution model of the
biosphere in which global distributions of major biospheric variables are
determined from climatic variables. Comparison with results from present-day
climate simulations shows the high sensitivity of the geographical distribution
of vegetation types, carbon content and biospheric trace gases emissions to
Sensitivity of Temperate Forests," J.L. Innes (Swiss Fed. Inst. For., Snow &
Landscape Res., CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switz.), ibid., 237-243.
A review of information on the impact on forests of long-term climate change
and short-term climatic events.
Carbon-Water-Energy-Vegetation Model to Assess Responses of Temperate Forest
Ecosystems to Changes in Climate and Atmospheric CO2. Part I. Model
Concept," N.T. Nikolov (Rocky Mtn. For. & Range Exp. Sta., 240 W.
Prospect, Fort Collins CO 80526), D.G. Fox, ibid., 251-262.
Presents a new model which attempts to overcome the main limitations of
existing models by implementing a modern view of ecological hierarchy and a
robust approach for scaling ecological processes in space and time.
and Natural Vegetation in China," W. Futang (Chinese Acad. Meteor. Sci.,
Beijing 100081, China), Z. Zongci, ACTA Meteor. Sinica, 8(1),
Combines a simple, global, social-economic-climate-impact model with seven
GCMs, to predict an annual mean temperature increase of about 1.4° C and
annual total precipitation increase of about 4% by 2050. A vegetation-climate
model developed for Chinese vegetation, combined with the GCMs, predicts a great
change in natural vegetation by 2050. Also assesses the possible influence of
climate change on agriculture.
Effects of Ambient Ozone and Climate Measured on Growth of Mature Forest Trees,"
S.B. McLaughlin (Environ. Sci. Div., Oak Ridge Natl. Lab., Oak Ridge TN 37831),
D.J. Downing, Nature, 474(6519), 252-254, Mar. 16, 1995.
Reports a five-year study of serial changes in stem circumference of 28
mature loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) trees, that has defined a rough ozone
response threshold and quantified short- and longer-term components of growth
responses to varying ozone and climate variables. Episodic alterations of stem
growth are directly related to ozone exposure combined with low soil moisture
and high air temperature. Future ozone effects on forests are likely to be
influenced by climate change and by projected increases in regional ozone
pollution in industrialized countries.
and the Decline of Zooplankton in the California Current," D. Roemmich
(Marine Life Group, Scripps Inst. Oceanog., La Jolla CA 92093), J. McGowan, Science,
267(5202), 1324-1326, Mar. 3, 1995.
Since 1951, the biomass of macrozooplankton in waters off southern
California has decreased by 80%. The surface layer of water has warmed over the
same period, by more than 1.5øC in some places, causing increased
stratification and less upwelling of inorganic nutrients for new biological
production. The cause of the warming is unclear, but the findings show that if
the global temperature rises 1-2øC in the next 40 years and if
stratification increases globally, the biological consequences could be
Change: Are Passive Greenhouses a Valid Microcosm for Testing the Biological
Effects of Environmental Perturbations?" A.W. Kennedy (Marine Lab., CSIRO,
POB 20, North Beach, Perth WA 6020, Australia), Global Change Biology,
1(1), 29-42, Feb. 1995.
Challenges the assumption of many studies that "passive"
greenhouses (those not requiring artificial power input to create treatment
conditions) provide a sufficiently controlled micro-environment for climate
change research. Greenhouses modify temperature, moisture, light, gas
composition, snow cover, and wind speed in a complex and interactive manner.
However, the relationship between modification and forecast conditions of
climate change is poor, and interpretation of biological responses and
extrapolation to predictive models is unreliable. Suggests amendments to the
methodology used in greenhouse experiments to overcome criticisms of artifact
and lack of rigor.
Change: Modelling the Potential Responses of Agro-Ecosystems with Special
Reference to Crop Protection," J. Goudriaan (Dept. Theoretical Production
Ecol., Wageningen Agric. Univ., POB 430, 6700 AA Wageningen, Neth.), J.C.
Zadoks, Environ. Pollut., 88(2), 215-224, 1995.
Although climate change can affect potential yields, little is known about
its ability to modify the effects of pests, diseases, and weeds. If climate
change causes a gradual shift of agricultural regions, crops and associated
pests, diseases and weeds will migrate together, though perhaps at different
rates. Increases in atmospheric CO2 and UV radiation are not likely to have
large effects. Makes cautionary remarks to avoid jumping to conclusions.
Amphibian Populations in Perspective: Natural Fluctuations and Human Impacts,"
J.H.K. Pechmann (Savannah River Ecol. Lab., Univ. Georgia, P.O. Drawer E., Aiken
SC 29802), H.M. Wilbur, Herpetologica, 50, 65-84, 1994.
Provides theoretical, empirical and philosophical perspective on whether to
interpret declines and disappearances of amphibian populations as natural or
anthropogenic events, concluding that the evidence is equivocal. Concern about
the status of amphibian populations is clearly warranted, but formulation of
appropriate null hypotheses and further study are still needed.
See titles in the
special issue of Climatic Change, 28(1-2), Oct. 1994, that are listed in PROF.
PUBS./ASSESSING IMPACTS ON NATURAL RESOURCES, Jan. 1995 Digest.
Severity and the Response to Temperature Elevation of Arctic Aphids," A.T.
Strathdee (Ctr. Arctic Biol., Univ. Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK), J.S.
Bale et al., Global Change Biol., 1(1), 23-28, Feb. 1995.
the Influence of Changing Climate on the Soil Moisture and Productivity in Scots
Pine Stands in Southern and Northern Finland," S. Kellomäki (Faculty
For., Univ. Joensuu, POB 111, SF-80101 Joensuu, Finland), Clim. Change,
29(1), 35-51, Jan. 1995.
Climate Change Effects on Productivity of Beech Stand in Slovenia Using
Simulation Methods," L. Kajfez-Bogataj (Agron. Dept., Univ. Ljubljana,
Jamnikarjeva 101, 61000 Ljubljana, Slovenia), A. Hocevar, Agric. & For.
Meteor., 72(1-2), 47-56, Dec. 1994.
"The Impact of
Climate Change on the Soil/Moisture Regime of Scottish Mineral Soils," A.M.
MacDonald (Macaulay Land Use Res. Inst., Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB9 2QJ, UK),
K.B. Matthews et al., Environ. Pollut., 83, 245-250, 1994.
Guide to Publishers
Index of Abbreviations