February 28, 2007
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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999
FROM VOLUME 8, NUMBER 6, JUNE 1995
OF GENERAL INTEREST: CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE
Paleoclimates to Predict Future Climate: How Far Can Analogy Go?" C. Covey
(Global Clim. Res. Div., Lawrence-Livermore Natl. Lab., POB 808, Livermore CA
94550), Clim. Change, 29(4), 403-407, Apr. 1995.
An extensive comment on the disagreement between GCMs and paleodata, which
should be cause for concern among those who subscribe to the conventional
wisdom. The disciplines of geology and meteorology must be brought together if
we are to fully confront theory with observation.
Analysis Project," A. Henderson-Sellers, W. Howe (Climate Impacts Ctr.,
Macquarie Univ., N. Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia), K. McGuffie, Global &
Planetary Change, 10(1-4), 3-21, Apr. 1995. Part of a
special issue, "Results from the Model Evaluation Consortium for Climate
Assessment (MECCA)," T. Kittel, Ed. Single copies are available from
Elsevier Sci. Pub., POB 330, 100 AH Amsterdam, Neth. gpc
This lead paper summarizes the first phase of experiments designed to
quantify the uncertainties inherent in climate model projections of climate
changes and their impacts, and to demonstrate how these uncertainties bear on
"Climate of the
Earth: An Overview," M.B. McElroy (Dept. Earth Sci., Harvard Univ.,
Cambridge MA 02138), Environ. Pollut., 83, 3-21, 1994.
A 10,000-year Norwegian climate record provides a context for discussing
possible changes in climate today arising from the build-up of industrially
related greenhouse gases. Makes somewhat pessimistic comments concerning the
prospects for meaningful near-term predictions of the response of climate to
this build-up. Studies of past climates can play a valuable role in developing
credible models for the future.
Simulations of Terrestrial Carbon and Atmospheric Interactions," E.L.
Mueller, J.R. Kramer (Dept. Geol., McMaster Univ., Hamilton ON L8S 4M1, Can.),
A maximum change from agriculture to forest has a small effect on abating
emission increases. Controlling emission rates at 5.1 ´ 1015 g C/a will
result in almost a 50% increase in atmospheric CO2 in 200 years;
reducing emission rates to 1960 levels now would still result in an increase.
Scientific Basis for Global Warming Scenarios," R.S. Lindzen (Ctr. Meteor. &
Phys. Oceanog., Mass. Inst. Technol., Cambridge MA 02139), ibid.,
A review that takes care to distinguish the issue of changes in radiative
forcing at the Earth's surface from the issue of changes of climatic response to
this forcing. With respect to the latter, predictions of warming depend on the
presence of large positive feedbacks that amplify the response. The largest of
these in current models involves upper tropospheric water vapor, but this
appears to be largely a model artifact, and models may even have the wrong sign
for this feedback. The response of climate to major volcanic eruptions may
provide a test of the climate system's amplification because of the possibility
that the response delay of the ocean-atmosphere system is proportional to the
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