February 28, 2007
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FROM VOLUME 9, NUMBER 4, APRIL 1996
of Interdecadal Trends in Northern Hemisphere Surface Air Temperatures,"
J.M. Wallace (Dept. Atmos. Sci., Box 351640, Univ. Washington, Seattle WA
98195), Y. Zhang, L. Bajuk, J. Clim., 9(2), 249-259, Feb. 1996.
Further explores a topic examined by the authors in the Nov. 3, 1995, issue
of Science. (See Wallace et al. paper, Global Climate Change Digest,
Prof. Pubs./Trend Analysis, Jan. 1996.) Anomalously high surface air
temperatures observed over high latitude, Northern Hemisphere continental
regions in the 1980s are consistent with the pattern of greenhouse gas induced
warming predicted by climate models. The data analysis presented here suggests,
although not conclusively, that changes in circulation patterns (not necessarily
related to greenhouse warming) could have accounted for this recent trend. A
better estimate of any trend in the hemispheric mean temperature record that
is related to greenhouse gases can be obtained by removing the effects
of a pronounced cold oceanwarm land pattern of temperature fluctuations
evident in the data.
Interdecadal and Century-Scale Climate Oscillations During the Past Five
Centuries," M.E. Mann (Dept. Geol., Yale Univ., POB 208109, New Haven CT
06520), J. Park, R.S. Bradley, Nature, 378(6554), 266-270, Nov.
Reports a multivariate statistical analysis of a small but global set of
high-quality temperature proxy records, extending over several centuries. The
results strengthen evidence for persistent, natural interdecadal and
century-scale climate oscillations, and reveal both the spatial patterns and
temporal histories of these signals.
Interdecadal Variability in 335 Years of Central England Temperatures," G.
Plaut, M. Ghil (Dept. Atmos. Sci., Univ. California, Los Angeles CA 90095), R.
Vautard, Science, 268(5211), 710 ff., May 5, 1995.
Singular spectrum analysis has identified climate oscillations in this
temperature record with interannual (7- to 8-year) and interdecadal (15- and
25-year) periods, probably related to the North Atlantic's wind-driven and
thermohaline circulation, respectively. Statistical prediction shows
temperatures decreasing toward the end of this decade and rising again into the
middle of the next.
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