February 28, 2007
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Published July 1988 through June 1999
FROM VOLUME 10, NUMBER 8, AUGUST 1997
"Statistical Evidence Links Exceptional 1995 Atlantic Hurricane
Season to Record Sea Warming," M.A. Saunders (Dept. Space & Clim.
Phys., Univ. College London, Holmbury St. Mary, Dorking Surrey RH5 6NT,
UK; e-mail: email@example.com), A.R. Harris,Geophys. Res. Lett.,
24(10), 1255-1258, May 15, 1997.
Most environmental factors in 1995 were favorable for tropical cyclone
development, but this study demonstrates that a factor not fully explored
before, regional sea surface temperature, was the most significant, based
on 45-year statistical regressions.
"Atlantic Hurricanes in the Second Half of the Nineteenth Century,"
J. Fernández-Partagás, H.F. Diaz (ERL/NOAA, 325 Broadway,
Boulder CO 80303),Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77(12),
2899-2906, Dec. 1996.
This research was undertaken to improve information on the frequency and
intensities of North Atlantic and Caribbean hurricanes in the period
(1851-1890) prior to the establishment of the modern tropical cyclone
monitoring and detection system. Comparison of the total number of storms
between that 40-year period and the corresponding one in the twentieth
century suggests that the earlier period was relatively less active, even
after taking into account the differences in the observational networks.
"Objective Classification of Atlantic Hurricanes," J.B. Elsner
(Dept. Meteor., Florida State Univ., Tallahassee FL 32306), G.S.
Lehmiller, T.B. Kimberlain,J. Clim., 9(11), 2880-2889,
Develops an objective and statistically valid scheme for classifying
hurricanes as either tropical-only, or baroclinically-influenced (having
some characteristics of middle-latitude storms). Application of the scheme
to storm histories shows that a fairly abrupt shift to fewer tropical-only
hurricanes occurred around 1960, which is partly explained by recent
droughts in Africa.
"Long-Term Trends and Interannual Variability in Tropical Cyclone
Activity over the Western North Pacific," J.C.L. Chan (Dept. Phys.,
City Univ. of Hong Kong, 83 Tat Chee Ave., Kowloon, Hong Kong; e-mail:
firstname.lastname@example.org), J. Shi,Geophys. Res. Lett., 23(20),
2765-2767, Oct. 1, 1996.
The trend in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific
has been generally upward since the late 1980s, opposite to the findings
of Landsea (1996) for intense Atlantic hurricanes. The combination of both
results probably indicates that total global tropical cyclone activity has
remained relatively steady. Tropical storms show considerable interannual
variability, making any attempt to establish a connection with increasing
greenhouse gases difficult.
"Intense Extratropical Northern Hemisphere Winter Cyclone Events:
1899-1991," S.J. Lambert (Can. Ctr. Clim. Modeling & Anal., POB
1700, MS 3339, Victoria BC V8W 2Y2, Can.), J. Geophys. Res., 101(D16),
21,319-21,325, Sep. 27, 1996.
This survey of intense storms (defined as central pressure less than or
equal to 970 millibars) shows little or no trend before about 1970. After
1970, there is a noticeable increase in the number of Pacific and Atlantic
events, with a weak out-of-phase relationship and a suggested 25-year
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