February 28, 2007
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A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999
FROM VOLUME 10, NUMBER 2, FEBRUARY 1997
INTEGRATED SCENARIOS OF GLOBAL CHANGE
Special Issue: Global Environ. Change, 6(4), Sep.
1996. Guest editors: J. Alcamo, E. Kreileman, R. Leemans. Contains the following
six papers with results from the IMAGE (Integrated Model to Assess the
Greenhouse Effect). A series of workshops, organized in 1995 by the Dutch
National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) and Delft
Technical University, brought together modelers and climate policy advisors to
investigate how the IMAGE model could assist in the negotiations for a 1997
"Global Models Meet Global Policy. How Can Global and Regional
Modellers Connect with Environmental Policy Makers? What has Hindered Them? What
Has Helped?" J. Alcamo (Ctr. Environ. Systems Res., Univ. Kassel,
Kurt-Wolters-Str. 3, D-34109 Kassel, Ger.), E. Kreileman, R. Leemans, 255-259.
An essay on the development of global assessment models since the 1970s,
culminating with the RAINS model of regional acidification, and the IMAGE model
of global climate change. Summarizes factors that have led to their success,
which strongly depends on the interaction of model developers with policy makers
and their advisors.
"Baseline Scenarios of Global Environmental Change," J. Alcamo
(address above), G.J.J. Kreileman et al., 261-303.
Presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE
2 model, covering a wide range of coupled global change indicators. By giving
insight into trends, they may point out where policy intervention may be
especially important. They suggest that the coming decades could be a period of
relatively rapid global environmental change as compared to the period before
and after. Natural vegetation in industrialized regions could be threatened by
climate change, but abandonment of agricultural lands could open new areas for
reforestation. The opposite holds for most of Asia and Africa, where the impacts
of climate change on vegetation may be less, but the demand for food will lead
to a significant expansion of agricultural lands at the expense of remaining
forests and other natural areas.
"Emission Scenarios and Global Climate Protection," J. Alcamo
(address above), E. Kreileman, 305-334.
Evaluates the effectiveness of different emissions pathways in achieving
both short- and long-term goals for climate protection, and identifies the
allowable range of emissions in the near term that would achieve these goals.
Impacts observed under the baseline scenario are substantially reduced only when
emissions are controlled in both industrialized and developing countries, and
when both CO2 and non-CO2 emissions are controlled. Defines the concept of "safe
emission corridors," or the allowable range of near-term global emissions
that complies with climate goals.
"The Land Cover and Carbon Cycle Consequences of Large-Scale
Utilizations of Biomass as an Energy Source," R. Leemans (Natl. Inst.
Public Health & Environ.-RIVM, POB 1, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Neth.), A. van
Amstel et al., 335-357.
Uses the IMAGE model to investigate a revised scenario, "Low CO2
Emissions Energy Supply Systems" (LESS), developed for the IPCC second
assessment. Simulations show that 45% more land is required than the 550 million
hectares on which the original LESS scenario is based. Such expansion of
agricultural land will influence deforestation patterns and have significant
consequences for environmental issues, such as biodiversity. Concludes from this
and other results that the cultivation of large quantities of modern biomass is
feasible, but that its effectiveness to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases has
to be evaluated in combination with many other environmental, land use, and
"Evaluating Cost-Effective Strategies for Meeting Regional CO2
Targets," J.C. Bollen (Natl. Inst. Public Health & Environ.-RIVM, POB
1, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Neth.), A.M.C. Toet, H.J.M. de Vries, 359-373.
In principle, the total costs of meeting emission reduction targets proposed
for industrialized countries could be greatly reduced if cut backs are
implemented in regions with low marginal costs for CO2 reduction. However, this
saving has been difficult to quantify because of the lack of models with
suitable regional and economic sectoral detail. This study makes such an
estimate with the IMAGE 2 model, finding that it is very important for such cost
comparisons to use a well-defined baseline scenario and clearly formulated
targets. Concludes that large economic benefits, on the order of 35-65%, can
accrue from joint implementation agreements involving non-industrialized regions
which allocate investments on the basis of net marginal costs of CO2 emission
"Integrated Scenarios of Acidification and Climate Change in Asia
and Europe," M. Posch (Natl. Inst. Public Health & Environ.-RIVM, POB
1, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Neth.), 375-394.
Links two integrated assessment models, IMAGE 2 for global-scale climate
change, and RAINS for regional acidifying deposition. Examines the trade-off
involved in reducing deposition in Asia and Europe, which also reduces the
global level of sulfate aerosols that counteract warming by greenhouse gases. In
general, the effects of reducing sulfur emissions and thus enhancing climate
change would about balance for the Asian region, whereas for Europe the
desirable impact of sulfur reductions would greatly outweigh the climatic
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