Archives of the
Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999
FROM VOLUME 11, NUMBER 6, JUNE 1998
ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF POLICY
(See related News article, this Global Climate Change Digest
Global Warming: The High Cost of the Kyoto Protocol, WEFA,
Inc., for American Petroleum Inst. (API), June 1998. A four-page executive
summary is available on the API Web site (http://www.api.org).
The Kyoto Protocol requires the U.S. to reduce its emissions 7% below
1990 levels by late next decade. This would have severe economic
consequences, including doubling energy and electricity prices, reducing
U.S total output $300 billion annually, and reducing average annual
household income nearly $2700. WEFA believes a better climate strategy
would be to match policy options to an evolving understanding of climate
science by increasing investments in technology and gradually replacing
capital stock, encouraging voluntary actions, and insisting that
developing countries meaningfully participate.
Fighting Global Warming Can Create Jobs and Benefit the Economy,
H. Geller, June 1998 (ACEEE). Full text on ACEEE Web site
Testimony given by Geller before the Small Business Committee of the
U.S. House of Representatives. Critics of the Kyoto Protocol use worst
case, implausible assumptions that reflect an inflexible, dumb approach to
reducing emissions, and lead directly to job loss and lower economic
growth. New technologies as well as renewable energy sources are the key
to cutting greenhouse gas emissions without severe economic harm. Cites
examples of existing small and medium-sized businesses applying these
Climate Mitigation Policy and U.S. Economic Growth, M.
Thorning, Apr. 1998 (ACCF). Full text and ordering instructions on the
ACCF Web site (http://www.accf.org).
Testimony before the House Subcommittee on National Economic Growth,
Natural Resources, and Regulatory Affairs (Apr. 23, 1998.) The consensus
of several noted scholars who have independently studied the topic is
clear. Policymakers should weigh carefully the likely negative economic
impact of precipitous near-term reductions in U.S. CO2 emissions and
energy use, in light of the need to increase economic growth to address
challenges such as a growing population, the retirement of the baby boom
generation, and a persistent trade deficit. Adopting a thoughtfully timed
climate policybased on science and improved climate modelswould
both enhance U.S. and global economic growth and stabilize CO2 levels in
the long term.
Estimating the Costs of Kyoto: How Plausible Are the Clinton
Administration's Figures?, R.J. Kopp, J.W. Anderson, 3 pp., Mar. 1998.
Article on the Weathervane site (http://www.weathervane.rff.org)
of Resources for the Future (RFF).
Comments on testimony by Janet Yellen, chair of the President's Council
of Economic Advisors, concerning the Administration's cost estimates.
Concludes that the estimates have a respectable analytical base, but to
turn them into economic reality will require satisfactory answers to a lot
of questions, many of which are essentially political.
The Costs of Cutting Carbon Emissions, Oxford Economic
Forecasting (U.K.), Dec. 1997 (OEF). A two-page summary is available on
OEF's Web site.
New research suggests that UK output will be reduced by 1.5% if the
government's target for carbon emissions in 2010 is to be met. The
required carbon tax is nearly $300 per ton, implying a rise in industrial
energy costs of over 100%
Available from the Australian Bureau of Agric. & Resour. Econ.
International Climate Change Policy: Impacts on the European Union
(RR97.9), 92 pp., Dec. 1997, A$36.
International Climate Change Policy: Impacts on Developing Countries
(RR97.8), 87 pp., Nov. 1997, A$36.
International Climate Change Policy: Economic Implications for New
Zealand (CCNZ97), 32 pp., July 1997, A$30.
Integrated Assessments of Climate Change Policy Impacts (CCP97),
16 pp., June 1997, A$30.
The Economic Impact of International Climate Change Policy (RR
97.4), 107 pp., June 1997, A$36.
Climate: Making Sense and Making Money (E97-13), A.
Lovins, H. Lovins, 9 pp., Nov. 1997, $8 (RMI). Also available on the RMI
Written at the request of the President's Council on Sustainable
Development to develop the "no regrets" position on climate
policy. Asserts that huge, money-saving opportunities exist to protect
climate through energy efficiency, but are being blocked by dozens of
market barriers. Proposes practical ways to turn these obstacles into
business opportunities, giving many real-world examples.
The Costs to Ireland of Greenhouse Gas Abatement (Paper No.
32), Econ. & Social Res. Inst., Nov. 1997, IR£15/$22.60 (ESRI)
Models the relationship between Ireland's rate of economic growth and
its energy consumption. Concludes that fiscal incentives are the best way
to contain Ireland's CO2 emissions. Discusses taxes and tradeable emission
Energy Exporters and Climate Change, P. Kassler, M. Paterson,
126 pp., Nov. 1997, £11 (RIIA).
Examines potential implications of climate change for energy-exporting
countries, their role in the international process, and ways forward both
for them and for the international community.
Return to 1990: The Cost of Mitigating United States Carbon
Emissions in the Post-2000 Period (PNNL-11819), J.A. Edmunds, S.H. Kim
et al., 73 pp., Oct. 1997 (PNNL). Available from the first author (tel:
202 646 5243; e-mail: email@example.com).
Uses the Second Generation Model (SGM) to examine four hypothetical
agreements to reduce emissions in industrialized countries to 1990 levels.
Costs to the U.S. are estimated with and without international trading of
emissions rights. Trading lowers the cost of any mitigation objective. Of
the four scenarios studied, economic costs to the U.S. remain below 1% of
GDP through at least the year 2020. Emissions reductions in the U.S. are
accomplished via energy conservation across a broad range of activities,
and by replacing coal fired power stations with natural gas facilities.
U.S. Competitiveness is Not at Risk in the Climate Negotiations,
R. Repetto et al., 8 pp., Oct. 1997 (WRI). Also available on the WRI Web
Explains why warnings of industry flight and significant job loss are
exaggerated and why these economic catastrophes will not occur if
greenhouse gases are controlled and energy prices rise. The U.S. will
remain competitive even without full-blown developing country commitments.
Impact of High Energy Price Scenarios on Energy-Intensive
Sectors: Perspectives from Industry Workshops (PB97-181556INZ), R.J.
Sutherland et al. (Argonne Natl. Lab.), 327 pp., July 1997, $60/$23
Explores possible effects of climate policy on six industriesbasic
chemicals, iron and steel, petroleum refining, paper, aluminum, and
cement. Concludes that large energy price increases could have a
devastating effect on them.
Critical Issues in the Economics of Climate Change, May 1997,
Reviews material presented at a 1996 symposium of the International
Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association, and provides a
comprehensive overview of economic factors related to climate change.
World Economic Impacts of U.S. Commitments to Medium Term Carbon
Emissions Limits," D. Montgomery, Feb. 1997 (CRA).
Examines the effects on 80 countries of two carbon abatement policies
applied only to OECD (developed) countries. Developing countries, though
under no emission commitments, would face losses about 10 percent as large
as those affecting OECD countries. In addition, energy exporting countries
would face losses comparable to those of the OECD.
Guide to Publishers
Index of Abbreviations