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Global Climate Change DigestArchives of the
Global Climate Change Digest

A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 11, NUMBER 6, JUNE 1998

REPORTS...
ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF POLICY

(See related News article, this Global Climate Change Digest issue--June 1998.)


Item #d98jun48

Global Warming: The High Cost of the Kyoto Protocol, WEFA, Inc., for American Petroleum Inst. (API), June 1998. A four-page executive summary is available on the API Web site (http://www.api.org).

The Kyoto Protocol requires the U.S. to reduce its emissions 7% below 1990 levels by late next decade. This would have severe economic consequences, including doubling energy and electricity prices, reducing U.S total output $300 billion annually, and reducing average annual household income nearly $2700. WEFA believes a better climate strategy would be to match policy options to an evolving understanding of climate science by increasing investments in technology and gradually replacing capital stock, encouraging voluntary actions, and insisting that developing countries meaningfully participate.


Item #d98jun49

Fighting Global Warming Can Create Jobs and Benefit the Economy, H. Geller, June 1998 (ACEEE). Full text on ACEEE Web site (http://www.aceee.org).

Testimony given by Geller before the Small Business Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives. Critics of the Kyoto Protocol use worst case, implausible assumptions that reflect an inflexible, dumb approach to reducing emissions, and lead directly to job loss and lower economic growth. New technologies as well as renewable energy sources are the key to cutting greenhouse gas emissions without severe economic harm. Cites examples of existing small and medium-sized businesses applying these principles.


Item #d98jun50

Climate Mitigation Policy and U.S. Economic Growth, M. Thorning, Apr. 1998 (ACCF). Full text and ordering instructions on the ACCF Web site (http://www.accf.org).

Testimony before the House Subcommittee on National Economic Growth, Natural Resources, and Regulatory Affairs (Apr. 23, 1998.) The consensus of several noted scholars who have independently studied the topic is clear. Policymakers should weigh carefully the likely negative economic impact of precipitous near-term reductions in U.S. CO2 emissions and energy use, in light of the need to increase economic growth to address challenges such as a growing population, the retirement of the baby boom generation, and a persistent trade deficit. Adopting a thoughtfully timed climate policy—based on science and improved climate models—would both enhance U.S. and global economic growth and stabilize CO2 levels in the long term.


Item #d98jun51

Estimating the Costs of Kyoto: How Plausible Are the Clinton Administration's Figures?, R.J. Kopp, J.W. Anderson, 3 pp., Mar. 1998. Article on the Weathervane site (http://www.weathervane.rff.org) of Resources for the Future (RFF).

Comments on testimony by Janet Yellen, chair of the President's Council of Economic Advisors, concerning the Administration's cost estimates. Concludes that the estimates have a respectable analytical base, but to turn them into economic reality will require satisfactory answers to a lot of questions, many of which are essentially political.


Item #d98jun52

The Costs of Cutting Carbon Emissions, Oxford Economic Forecasting (U.K.), Dec. 1997 (OEF). A two-page summary is available on OEF's Web site.

New research suggests that UK output will be reduced by 1.5% if the government's target for carbon emissions in 2010 is to be met. The required carbon tax is nearly $300 per ton, implying a rise in industrial energy costs of over 100%


Item #d98jun53

Available from the Australian Bureau of Agric. & Resour. Econ. (ABARE):

International Climate Change Policy: Impacts on the European Union (RR97.9), 92 pp., Dec. 1997, A$36.

International Climate Change Policy: Impacts on Developing Countries (RR97.8), 87 pp., Nov. 1997, A$36.

International Climate Change Policy: Economic Implications for New Zealand (CCNZ97), 32 pp., July 1997, A$30.

Integrated Assessments of Climate Change Policy Impacts (CCP97), 16 pp., June 1997, A$30.

The Economic Impact of International Climate Change Policy (RR 97.4), 107 pp., June 1997, A$36.


Item #d98jun54

Climate: Making Sense and Making Money (E97-13), A. Lovins, H. Lovins, 9 pp., Nov. 1997, $8 (RMI). Also available on the RMI Web site.

Written at the request of the President's Council on Sustainable Development to develop the "no regrets" position on climate policy. Asserts that huge, money-saving opportunities exist to protect climate through energy efficiency, but are being blocked by dozens of market barriers. Proposes practical ways to turn these obstacles into business opportunities, giving many real-world examples.


Item #d98jun55

The Costs to Ireland of Greenhouse Gas Abatement (Paper No. 32), Econ. & Social Res. Inst., Nov. 1997, IR£15/$22.60 (ESRI)

Models the relationship between Ireland's rate of economic growth and its energy consumption. Concludes that fiscal incentives are the best way to contain Ireland's CO2 emissions. Discusses taxes and tradeable emission quotas.


Item #d98jun56

Energy Exporters and Climate Change, P. Kassler, M. Paterson, 126 pp., Nov. 1997, £11 (RIIA).

Examines potential implications of climate change for energy-exporting countries, their role in the international process, and ways forward both for them and for the international community.


Item #d98jun57

Return to 1990: The Cost of Mitigating United States Carbon Emissions in the Post-2000 Period (PNNL-11819), J.A. Edmunds, S.H. Kim et al., 73 pp., Oct. 1997 (PNNL). Available from the first author (tel: 202 646 5243; e-mail: jae@pnl.gov).

Uses the Second Generation Model (SGM) to examine four hypothetical agreements to reduce emissions in industrialized countries to 1990 levels. Costs to the U.S. are estimated with and without international trading of emissions rights. Trading lowers the cost of any mitigation objective. Of the four scenarios studied, economic costs to the U.S. remain below 1% of GDP through at least the year 2020. Emissions reductions in the U.S. are accomplished via energy conservation across a broad range of activities, and by replacing coal fired power stations with natural gas facilities.


Item #d98jun58

U.S. Competitiveness is Not at Risk in the Climate Negotiations, R. Repetto et al., 8 pp., Oct. 1997 (WRI). Also available on the WRI Web site (http://www.wri.org/wri/cpi/pubs).

Explains why warnings of industry flight and significant job loss are exaggerated and why these economic catastrophes will not occur if greenhouse gases are controlled and energy prices rise. The U.S. will remain competitive even without full-blown developing country commitments.


Item #d98jun59

Impact of High Energy Price Scenarios on Energy-Intensive Sectors: Perspectives from Industry Workshops (PB97-181556INZ), R.J. Sutherland et al. (Argonne Natl. Lab.), 327 pp., July 1997, $60/$23 microfiche (NTIS).

Explores possible effects of climate policy on six industries—basic chemicals, iron and steel, petroleum refining, paper, aluminum, and cement. Concludes that large energy price increases could have a devastating effect on them.


Item #d98jun60

Critical Issues in the Economics of Climate Change, May 1997, £25 (IPIECA).

Reviews material presented at a 1996 symposium of the International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association, and provides a comprehensive overview of economic factors related to climate change.


Item #d98jun61

World Economic Impacts of U.S. Commitments to Medium Term Carbon Emissions Limits," D. Montgomery, Feb. 1997 (CRA).

Examines the effects on 80 countries of two carbon abatement policies applied only to OECD (developed) countries. Developing countries, though under no emission commitments, would face losses about 10 percent as large as those affecting OECD countries. In addition, energy exporting countries would face losses comparable to those of the OECD.

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